AP Picks Oregon to Beat Texas 24-20 for 2026 CFP Title

Q: Will Notre Dame's controversial new playoff protection spark a massive 16-team expansion before the 2027 championship?

Probably not before the 2027 championship, though Notre Dame’s new protection could add pressure to expand. The immediate reality is that the 2026-27 playoff is locked at 12 teams, with Notre Dame guaranteed a berth if it finishes in the top 12. Any expansion for the 2027 season must be approved by Dec. 1, 2026. That leaves little time, and the sport’s power brokers are still divided. Notre Dame’s protection is controversial because it gives an independent program a safety net that other at-large teams do not have, while the new rules also reserve bids for the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC champions plus one top Group of 6 team. In practice, that can squeeze bubble teams and make access harder for smaller programs. If a lower-ranked team such as South Florida jumps bigger-name schools, the backlash could intensify. But the bigger obstacle to a 16-team move is politics and structure, not outrage alone. The SEC has leaned toward a 16-team “5+11” model, while the Big Ten has pushed harder for 24 teams. CFP executive director Rich Clark said recent talks focused more on 24 than 16, and that many operational and revenue questions remain unresolved. If the Big Ten and SEC do not agree, the field stays at 12. So Notre Dame’s new status may fuel the argument for change, especially if it produces a messy bubble in December. Still, the current evidence suggests expansion by 2027 is possible but far from imminent, and a 16-team format is not the clear favorite.

3 articles · Updated · WRAL News · Aug 25

Oregon is projected to win the 2026 College Football Playoff, beating Texas 24-20 in Las Vegas on Jan. 25 for the Ducks' first national title.
Dante Moore anchors that forecast after Oregon opened No. 2 in the preseason AP poll, with the Ducks expected to reach the final by beating Miami on the road in a semifinal.
Texas is predicted to claim a top-four seed behind Arch Manning, while Notre Dame lands the No. 1 seed under rules that guarantee the Irish a berth if they finish in the top 12.
The bracket projection also has Oklahoma upsetting both Texas Tech and Ohio State, South Florida sneaking into the 12-team field, and more SEC snubs fueling calls to expand the playoff to 24 teams.
Those picks come as the CFP enters its third year with a 12-team format that starts Dec. 18 and, despite recent tweaks, still draws criticism for opaque selection criteria.