FRED Model Puts Julian Sayin at 55.3, Casting Doubt on 2027 NFL Draft's 12-QB Hype
Updated
Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 27
FRED Model Puts Julian Sayin at 55.3, Casting Doubt on 2027 NFL Draft's 12-QB Hype
3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Aug 27
Summary
Julian Sayin is the only 2027 quarterback already above FRED's 50-point first-round threshold, posting a class-best 55.3 after a 2025 season with 78.4% passing, 31 touchdowns and an 84.9 QBR.
The model, built from historical markers such as efficiency, QBR and best three- and five-game stretches, has seen 22 quarterbacks reach 50 before their final college seasons — and all 22 became first-round picks.
Darian Mensah at 39.4 and Drew Mestemaker at 40.4 are the next-strongest historical bets, while Trinidad Chambliss at 29.7 also outperforms several bigger-name passers on the model.
LaNorris Sellers, Nico Iamaleava and other highly touted prospects lag badly in the data — Sellers sits at 11.9 and Iamaleava at 1.5 — leaving them needing major 2026 jumps in accuracy, processing or consistency.
The gap between tape and numbers suggests the long-hyped 2027 quarterback class has more recognizable names than proven first-round profiles heading into the season.