Fed September 25-Basis-Point Hike Odds Jump Near 50% After Warsh Speech
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 28
Fed September 25-Basis-Point Hike Odds Jump Near 50% After Warsh Speech
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 28
Summary
Kalshi traders lifted the chance of a September Fed rate increase to 48% after Kevin Warsh said policymakers must keep fighting inflation, reversing a market view that had favored no move.
Fed funds futures priced a nearly 56% chance of a quarter-point hike and Polymarket showed 49%, after Warsh argued better summer inflation readings still did not prove underlying trends had improved enough.
The shift followed a month of fading hike expectations after July job losses and cooler inflation data, even though inflation remained above the Fed's 2% target.
Two-year Treasury yields climbed to their highest since late July as investors repriced the Sept. 16 decision, with Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks reviving the hawkish case.