Updated
Updated · The Associated Press · Aug 28
S&P 500 Slips 0.3% as Fed Hike Odds Jump to Nearly 60%
Updated
Updated · The Associated Press · Aug 28

S&P 500 Slips 0.3% as Fed Hike Odds Jump to Nearly 60%

3 articles · Updated · The Associated Press · Aug 28

Summary

  • Nearly 60% odds of a September Fed rate hike, up from 35% a day earlier, pushed U.S. stocks lower Friday as investors absorbed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks.
  • Warsh called short-term rates the Fed’s “predominant tool” and said broad financial conditions are not restrictive, reinforcing expectations that rates may need to rise to curb inflation.
  • The two-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.34% from 4.22% after the speech, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow lost 50 points and the Nasdaq dropped 0.5%.
  • Longer-dated yields rose less sharply — the 10-year reached 4.72% and the 30-year 5.20% — suggesting bond investors see less risk of entrenched inflation farther out.
  • The market reaction also highlights a policy tension: Warsh favors rate moves over bond buying even after the Treasury’s unusual recent buyback plan aimed to ease pressure from high long-term yields.

Insights

As rate hike odds suddenly spike to 60 percent, are investors drastically underestimating the threat of prolonged sticky inflation?
With inflation fueled by the AI boom, could the Fed's next surprise move trigger a sudden tech market crash?
If AI demand keeps inflation hot, will the Fed's aggressive tightening actually cool prices or just break the economy?