Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 31
10-Year Treasury Yield Slips to 4.712% as U.S.-Iran Strikes Offset Hawkish Fed Signals
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Aug 31

10-Year Treasury Yield Slips to 4.712% as U.S.-Iran Strikes Offset Hawkish Fed Signals

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Aug 31

Summary

  • The 10-year Treasury yield edged down 1 basis point to 4.712% early Monday, while the 2-year fell 2 basis points to 4.327% and the 30-year held at 5.21%.
  • Overnight U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Tehran's reported attack on U.S. bases in Jordan lifted demand for safer assets, even as Brent crude rose about 2% to $89.84 a barrel.
  • Fed policy expectations still stayed hawkish after Jackson Hole: markets now price a 59.9% chance of a September rate hike, up from 35.4% before Chair Kevin Warsh's speech.
  • Barclays now expects two 25-basis-point hikes in September and December, while UBS still sees rates unchanged this year if disinflation continues.
  • ISM manufacturing, JOLTS and Friday's nonfarm payrolls are the next tests for whether geopolitical demand for Treasurys or tightening expectations drive yields.

Insights

Could surging oil from the latest Middle East strikes force the Fed's hand, unexpectedly crushing the recent US manufacturing rebound?
With inflation refusing to die, is the Fed's strict two-percent target secretly setting the stage for a sudden economic hard landing?