Updated

Updated · Los Angeles Times · Sep 2

Hurricane Marie Threatens Southern California With 50%-60% Rain Chance as 70-mph Storm Nears Hurricane Strength

Updated

Updated · Los Angeles Times · Sep 2

Hurricane Marie Threatens Southern California With 50%-60% Rain Chance as 70-mph Storm Nears Hurricane Strength

Q: Why might a storm hundreds of miles away spark severe wildfires in California before a single drop of rain falls?

A distant storm can raise wildfire danger in California because it can reshape the pressure pattern over the region before its moisture arrives. Forecasters say if Marie tracks in just the wrong way, it could set up offshore east or northeast winds — similar to Santa Ana-style winds — across Southern California. Those winds matter more than the rain timing. Strong, dry downslope winds can warm and dry vegetation, lower humidity, knock down trees or power lines, and push any spark rapidly through grass and brush. Fire agencies treat that mix of gusty wind, low humidity and dry fuels as classic red-flag weather because fires can spread explosively. That is why a storm hundreds of miles away can still create a fire threat even while people are expecting rain. Tropical systems do not only bring moisture; they also alter wind fields and pressure gradients over a wide area. If the storm remains offshore and the moisture lags behind, California can get the wind hazard first and the rain later — or, in some scenarios, little rain at all. Forecasters highlighted the Santa Ana and San Bernardino mountains, the Inland Empire, and the mountains and deserts of Riverside and San Diego counties as the main concern areas. They also stressed the forecast is highly sensitive to small shifts in Marie’s path, so the risk depends on whether the storm’s circulation briefly produces those offshore gusts before wetter air moves in.

3 articles · Updated · Los Angeles Times · Sep 2

Southern California faces its main Marie impacts from Sunday through Tuesday, with forecasters flagging a 50%-60% chance of widespread light rain and a 10%-20% chance of moderate-to-heavy rain that could trigger localized flooding and thunderstorms.
Marie was still a tropical storm with 70-mph winds Wednesday afternoon and is expected to become a hurricane, but most models keep it veering west of Baja and weakening over the weekend rather than making landfall.
South-facing beaches face the clearest threat: large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding as peak swell on Sunday and Monday combines with higher-than-normal holiday tides.
Less likely but still possible, a track shift could bring gusty offshore winds before rain arrives, raising fire-weather risk in inland mountains and deserts even as coastal areas prepare for showers.
Forecasters say small changes in Marie's path could sharply alter impacts, leaving Southern California balancing scenarios from no rain at all to heavy downpours and hazardous surf.