Updated
Updated · Ars Technica · Aug 31
Study Finds El Niño Strongest in 1,000 Years as Global Warming Intensifies Swings
Updated
Updated · Ars Technica · Aug 31

Study Finds El Niño Strongest in 1,000 Years as Global Warming Intensifies Swings

3 articles · Updated · Ars Technica · Aug 31

Summary

  • Galápagos coral records show eastern Pacific El Niño events are now stronger than at any point in the past 1,000 years, according to a study led by University of Michigan scientist Julie Cole.
  • The finding points to global warming as a driver of more dramatic ENSO swings, with added heat in the atmosphere and oceans amplifying the system’s warm phase.
  • Cole’s team built the long-term record from fossilized corals because climate models disagree and modern instrumental observations are too short to clearly isolate a trend.
  • ENSO is Earth’s biggest source of year-to-year climate variability, shifting tropical rainfall, drying Australia, flooding parts of Peru and reshaping weather patterns worldwide.

Insights

If ancient corals prove modern El Niño events are 36% stronger, what unprecedented global weather extremes await us in the coming decade?
Are fossilized Galápagos corals revealing a terrifying acceleration in ocean warming that modern forecasting models completely missed?