Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Sep 3
Nvidia Posts $96 Billion Q2 Revenue as Morningstar Lifts Fair Value to $310
Updated
Updated · Morningstar · Sep 3

Nvidia Posts $96 Billion Q2 Revenue as Morningstar Lifts Fair Value to $310

2 articles · Updated · Morningstar · Sep 3

Summary

  • $96 billion in fiscal Q2 revenue beat Nvidia’s $91 billion guidance, and the company projected $108 billion for the October quarter, ahead of $105 billion consensus.
  • A 70% fiscal 2028 growth forecast was the standout, implying nearly $700 billion in revenue versus prior estimates around $570 billion; Nvidia said even that outlook is supply constrained.
  • Morningstar raised its fair value estimate to $310 from $280, arguing AI demand is still accelerating and that top five US hyperscalers could spend $1.3 trillion on AI capex next year.
  • Gross margin guidance was the main weak spot: Nvidia sees 74% in October, 71.5% in January and 72.5% for fiscal 2028, pressured by rising memory prices in AI racks.
  • Shares rose 4%, but Morningstar still calls the stock moderately undervalued even as it flags very high uncertainty tied to AI spending concentration, custom chips and China restrictions.

Insights

With soaring memory costs eating into profits, can Nvidia's next-generation AI systems outpace the rising price of their own components?
As tech giants pivot to cheaper custom silicon in 2026, is Nvidia's trillion-dollar hardware empire finally facing a fatal threat?