Eric Cohen Predicts All 16 NFL Week 1 Scores, Backs Texans 23-20 Over Bills

Q: Will Josh Allen's haunting history of road turnovers allow the underdog Texans to pull off a stunning Week 1 upset?

Yes, the Texans have a credible path to a Week 1 upset, and Josh Allen’s road turnover history is a major reason why. The case is not just narrative. SportsLine analyst Eric Cohen made Houston +1.5 his top pick and projected a 23-20 Texans win, pointing to Allen’s poor production in recent road openers: 10 turnovers against only five passing touchdowns across three away starts. That matters even more against a Houston defense that gave Buffalo major problems last season, recording eight sacks and two interceptions. Recent head-to-head results also support a close game with Houston live to win outright. The Texans have taken four of the last five meetings with Buffalo, all by one score, and the scoring pattern has been remarkably tight: Houston’s wins in that span came with 22 or 23 points, while Buffalo was held to 19 or 20. The most recent cited result was another Texans win, 23-19, with Allen throwing no touchdown passes and two interceptions. That said, this would not be a shock on the betting board. Buffalo is only about a 1.5-point favorite, and other models still lean slightly Bills, projecting wins like 24-22 or 23-21. The market is essentially treating this as a one-possession game. The best evidence suggests Houston absolutely can pull it off if its defense forces Allen into mistakes again. The stronger claim is not that an upset is likely by a wide margin, but that the Texans are a very real underdog threat in one of Week 1’s closest matchups.

2 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

SportsLine expert Eric Cohen released exact-score picks for all 16 NFL Week 1 games, highlighting Houston to beat Buffalo 23-20 as a +1.5 underdog.
Cohen's case centers on Josh Allen's road struggles—10 turnovers against five passing touchdowns over his last three away starts—and a Texans defense that sacked him eight times and picked him off twice last year.
Houston has won four of its last five meetings with Allen and the Bills, all by one possession, and Cohen says that trend supports another tight result between AFC contenders.
Beyond Texans-Bills, Cohen says one road team will win by double digits, a call he argues could make alternate lines especially attractive for Week 1 bettors.
The broader slate opens this week with games on Wednesday, Thursday, Sunday and Monday, while the Chargers are the biggest favorites at -10 and three matchups sit at -1.5.