Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

SportsLine Model Picks Eagles, Jaguars to Cover Week 1 Spreads in 10,000 Simulations

Updated

Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

SportsLine Model Picks Eagles, Jaguars to Cover Week 1 Spreads in 10,000 Simulations

Q: Which massive Week 1 NFL underdogs did the simulation identify as outright winners hidden behind the paywall?

They are not identifiable from the free article alone. The SportsLine story says only that its 10,000-simulation model found “multiple underdogs that outright win,” but it keeps the actual teams behind the paywall. From the publicly available material, the only specific upset candidate hinted at elsewhere is New England at Seattle. Independent coverage of that matchup described it as “one of those unexpected Week 1 upsets,” and betting commentary noted sharp action pushing the Seahawks line down before settling at 3.5. But that is outside confirmation, not proof of SportsLine’s hidden picks. Beyond that, the article provides no disclosed list of the outright winners. The paywalled selections could plausibly come from several close-line underdogs on the board — such as Houston against Buffalo, Indianapolis against Baltimore, Green Bay against Minnesota, Miami against Las Vegas, the Giants against Dallas, or Denver against Kansas City — but those would be inference, not verified reporting. So the accurate answer is that the exact “massive Week 1 NFL underdogs” were not revealed in the public version of the SportsLine article.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 7

SportsLine’s NFL model flagged Jacksonville -7.5 and Philadelphia -5.5 as two of its strongest Week 1 spread picks, with each covering in nearly 60% of 10,000 simulations.
Jacksonville’s edge rests on last season’s betting trends: the Jaguars went 12-5 ATS, covered 78% of home games, and face a Browns team that was 2-6 ATS on the road; the model also likes the over in 64% of runs.
Philadelphia’s case centers on matchup advantages, with Jalen Hurts having won eight of his last nine completed starts against Washington and the Commanders coming off the league’s worst defense by yards allowed.
Washington also enters Week 1 with up to eight new defensive starters, a scheme shift to a 3-4 front, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil out with a triceps injury, while Jayden Daniels may run less after 2025 injuries.
The model, which says it is up more than $7,000 for $100 bettors since inception and is on a 53-37 top-rated run since 2024, has released picks for every Week 1 game and identified multiple underdogs to win outright.