New York Fed Survey Holds 1-Year Inflation Outlook at 3.6% as Rate Decision Nears
Updated
Updated · American Banker · Sep 8
New York Fed Survey Holds 1-Year Inflation Outlook at 3.6% as Rate Decision Nears
3 articles · Updated · American Banker · Sep 8
Summary
One-year inflation expectations stayed at 3.6% and five-year expectations at 3.0% in the New York Fed’s latest consumer survey, while the three-year view edged down to 3.2% from 3.3%.
John Williams said expectations remain well anchored and inflation is moving down slowly as tariff effects fade, but he stressed prices still need to be on a credible path back to the Fed’s 2% target.
44% of respondents expected unemployment to rise over the next year—up 1.6 percentage points and the highest since April 2020—while expected wage growth ticked up to 2.9%.
The survey lands a week before the FOMC meets, with futures pricing still split and August PPI and CPI due Thursday and Friday likely to shape whether officials hold rates or hike.