Claude AI Sees 30-Year Mortgage Rates Falling to 5.70% by 2030

1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Sep 9

A base-case forecast puts 30-year fixed mortgage rates at 6.25% in 2026, easing gradually to 5.70% by 2030 rather than dropping sharply.
The projection combines economist views on 10-year Treasury yields near 3.9%-4.1% with a mortgage spread that Claude expects to narrow from 2.15 percentage points to 1.8.
Claude’s bull case sees rates near 5.00% by 2030 if inflation returns to 2% and mortgage-backed securities spreads normalize, while its bear case has rates hitting 7.00% by 2027 before ending 2030 at 6.60%.
The outlook assumes the Fed leaves rates unchanged until December 2026 and then moves toward a neutral 3.125% policy rate by mid-2027, though recession, deficits or geopolitical shocks could upend the path.