Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Sep 11
Kalshi, Polymarket Face Ban Attempts in 20 States as Scrutiny Hits $1 Event Contracts
Updated
Updated · The New York Times · Sep 11

Kalshi, Polymarket Face Ban Attempts in 20 States as Scrutiny Hits $1 Event Contracts

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Sep 11

Summary

  • About 20 U.S. states have tried to use existing anti-gambling laws to block Kalshi and Polymarket as the fast-growing prediction markets draw heavier scrutiny.
  • The pressure centers on concerns that event contracts — yes-or-no wagers priced up to $1 — can be vulnerable to insider trading and manipulation.
  • Kalshi and Polymarket have surged from niche platforms into mainstream betting venues covering elections, central-bank decisions and pop-culture events, helping make this summer's World Cup the biggest gambling event ever.
  • Robinhood, FanDuel and DraftKings have also moved into prediction markets, while Meta has assigned a small team to build a similar smartphone app, underscoring how quickly the sector is expanding despite regulatory pushback.

Insights

As Europe cracks down on prediction platforms, could Malta’s bespoke regulations become the ultimate legal backdoor for event traders?
Can decentralized prediction markets survive aggressive EU bans, or will strict identity checks destroy the anonymity that fueled their growth?
If ESMA classifies event contracts as binary options, will Wall Street's push for prediction market ETFs collapse under international pressure?