Combo Contracts Drive Over 50% of Kalshi Volume as 9-Cent Bets Inflate Activity
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 6
Combo Contracts Drive Over 50% of Kalshi Volume as 9-Cent Bets Inflate Activity
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 6
Summary
Combo contracts now account for more than half of notional volume on Kalshi and nearly 50% of daily volume on Polymarket U.S., with NFL-season sports bets driving the surge.
9 cents was the average cash placed per combo contract on Kalshi on Sept. 27, versus less than 47 cents for single contracts, because high-payout multi-leg bets can be recorded as far larger notional volume.
58% of Kalshi's September trading volume came from combos even though they represented less than 13% of total transactions, underscoring how CFTC reporting can magnify headline activity.
Analysts say investors may be misreading those figures against sportsbook handle, since prediction markets count both sides of a trade and can show dollar volumes 20 to 100 times higher for similar bets.
Kalshi says notional volume does not overstate activity, while Polymarket favors taker volume as a better gauge of underlying trader demand.