CFTC Probes Kalshi Ether Perpetual Trades as $5,500 Orders Drove Nearly Half of Sept. 20 Volume
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 30
CFTC Probes Kalshi Ether Perpetual Trades as $5,500 Orders Drove Nearly Half of Sept. 20 Volume
1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 30
Summary
Nearly half of Kalshi’s ether perpetual dollar volume on Sept. 20 came from trades between $5,495 and $5,505, a pattern that helped trigger a reported CFTC review of the contract.
The concern is not just possible wash trading: experts told CNBC the market’s structure may be generating inorganic activity because 24-hour volume looked unusually large relative to resting liquidity and open interest.
Kalshi said hundreds of users were involved, denied wash trading, and argued the trades reflected arbitrage on stale quotes in a new CFTC-regulated market with fee waivers and other incentives meant to build early liquidity.
Similar volume questions are also hitting Polymarket’s international exchange, where low-probability contracts in elections and sports often trade more than favorites; Polymarket says sophisticated traders are exploiting mispricings, not faking activity.
The scrutiny matters because both platforms have touted surging volume to support rich private-market valuations—more than $20 billion for Polymarket and a reported $40 billion target for Kalshi—as they eye possible public listings.