Analyst Backs Jaguars -8.5, Eagles -6 in 5 Top NFL Week 1 Bets

Q: Will Patrick Mahomes’ offseason knee surgery cost the Chiefs a Monday night victory against Denver's ruthless pass rush?

Probably not by itself, but it is a real factor that could swing the game if Denver consistently forces Mahomes off his spot. The strongest evidence against the injury being decisive is that Mahomes is now fully cleared, practiced all week, has no injury designation for Monday night, and has said he expects to play without limitations. Andy Reid has also said Kansas City will not hold back parts of the offense. Reports from camp described Mahomes moving well, cutting, rolling both ways and showing no visible limp. The bigger issue is the matchup around him. Denver led the NFL in sacks the past two seasons and brings back the core of that defense, including Nik Bonitto, Zach Allen and Pat Surtain II. The Broncos also swept Kansas City in 2025, and Vance Joseph’s defense has recently had success making life difficult for Mahomes. That matters more because the Chiefs’ offensive line remains unsettled: left tackle Josh Simmons has already been ruled out, and protection was a major problem for Kansas City last season. So the surgery alone is unlikely to cost the Chiefs the game. But a recovering Mahomes facing an elite pass rush behind a shaky line creates the exact conditions for Denver to steal it. If Kansas City protects him reasonably well and leans on quick throws and Kenneth Walker III, the Chiefs can still win. If the pocket collapses early and often, the knee becomes much more relevant.

3 articles · Updated · CBS Sports · Sep 13

Five highlighted Week 1 picks led the analyst’s final betting card: Jaguars -8.5 over Cleveland, Eagles -6 over Washington, Broncos +2.5 at Kansas City, Texans +1.5 against Buffalo and Jets +1.5 at Tennessee.
Jacksonville and Philadelphia were favored largely on matchup edges — Cleveland’s 4-13 road ATS mark over two seasons and Washington’s injuries, including Laremy Tunsil’s torn triceps, against teams with strong Week 1 trends.
Denver and Houston were framed as live underdogs because of opponent vulnerabilities: Patrick Mahomes returns from ACL and LCL injuries behind shaky tackles, while Josh Allen is 0-4 on the road against Houston.
The analyst also leaned Jets over Titans, citing New York’s upgraded roster around Geno Smith and Tennessee rookie Cam Ward’s uneven preseason as reasons the Titans may need more time to gel.
For the rest of the slate, the card favored Steelers, Colts, Bears, Lions, Bengals, Cardinals, Vikings, Dolphins and Giants as the first full Sunday of the 2026 regular season begins.