Analyst Backs Over 7.5 Runs in Braves-Cubs Game as Imanaga Has Allowed 34 Homers

Q: Will JR Ritchie's inability to pitch deep into games expose the Braves' bullpen and jeopardize their late-season momentum?

Yes, it could expose Atlanta’s bullpen, but it does not necessarily threaten the Braves’ broader late-season momentum unless Ritchie exits very early. The risk is real because Ritchie has rarely worked deep into games in the majors. In eight MLB starts, he has a 4.50 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, a high 14.4% walk rate, and underlying metrics such as a 5.33 xERA and 5.12 xFIP that suggest traffic and elevated pitch counts. That profile matters against a Cubs lineup that has been one of baseball’s best against right-handers and especially dangerous at Wrigley. The counterpoint is that Atlanta is not sending him out cold. Ritchie has been much better at Triple-A recently, posting a 2.14 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over his last six starts, and he has shown signs of sharper command and swing-and-miss stuff. He also benefits from Chicago’s limited familiarity with him. The bigger question is bullpen condition. Atlanta’s relief group has shown some vulnerability lately, and recent usage suggests key arms such as Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Brent Suter have been active. If Ritchie only gives them three or four innings, that could create stress in the middle innings, where Atlanta has been less stable. Still, one short outing is unlikely to derail the Braves’ momentum by itself. Atlanta has a division cushion, a complete lineup, and enough urgency to manage around one rookie start. The greater danger is to this single game’s run prevention, which is why the over is a credible angle.

3 articles · Updated · Fox News · Sep 16

Over 7.5 runs is the recommended play for Wednesday’s Braves-Cubs matchup, with both clubs entering as likely playoff teams and the series already featuring strong hitting.
Shota Imanaga drives much of that call: the Cubs left-hander has surrendered 34 home runs this season, the most glaring weakness on a staff that has allowed more homers than any NL team.
JR Ritchie adds to the over case on the Atlanta side, carrying a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP while rarely working deep into games despite some recent improvement.
Wrigley Field wind could further boost scoring if Imanaga misses spots, even though he limited Atlanta to two earned runs over seven innings in their earlier meeting.
Atlanta holds a 5.5-game division lead and Chicago controls the top NL wild-card spot, making the game look more like a postseason preview than a low-stakes late-season matchup.