IMF Keeps 3% Global Growth View as 6-Month US-Iran War Lifts Energy Risks

3 articles · Updated · winnFm · Sep 14

Six months into the US-Iran war, the IMF said the global economy has absorbed the shock better than feared and remains on track for about 3% growth.
About 20% of global oil shipments normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and its closure has lifted energy, food and fertiliser costs even as countries tap reserves, shift supplies and curb demand.
One-tenth of pre-war ship traffic is now moving through Hormuz, while high diesel and jet-fuel prices, reserve restocking needs and winter demand point to a prolonged energy squeeze.
Global public debt is now near 100% of GDP—the highest since World War II—and the IMF said the 2022 disinflation process has stalled, with its July forecast putting 2026 headline inflation at 4.7%.
The fund said an AI-led technology boom is partly offsetting the supply shock, but risks remain high, especially for oil-importing small island economies, with a fresh outlook due at next month’s Thailand meetings.