Skubal Lifts Changeup Use to 28.8% With Dodgers, Cutting Sinker in Key Spots

Q: What makes Tarik Skubal's changeup so unhittable since his blockbuster trade to the Dodgers?

Tarik Skubal’s changeup is so hard to hit because the Dodgers have turned it into his featured weapon and because the pitch itself has elite deception and movement. Since the trade, Los Angeles has had its catchers lean on the changeup more often, especially in trouble spots. Skubal’s usage has climbed from 25.1% with Detroit to 28.8% with the Dodgers, while his sinker usage has fallen. The biggest shift has come with runners in scoring position, where the changeup has replaced the four-seam fastball as his most-used pitch. That means hitters are seeing his best secondary pitch more often in the moments when they are most vulnerable. The pitch’s raw quality explains why that strategy works. Skubal’s changeup owns a 46.8% whiff rate, the best among MLB changeups, and some reports have had it near 50% over larger stretches. It is built on a refined two-seam circle grip and seam-shifted-wake movement, giving it sharp fade and late drop rather than looking like a simple offspeed fastball. Skubal has said his sinker and changeup come out looking similar, but one arrives near 98 mph and the other around the high 80s with much more depth, making recognition difficult. Its deception is a major separator. Evaluators have pointed to his release and arm speed, saying the ball stays on the same lane as his fastball before disappearing under barrels. That is why even left-handed hitters struggle against it, and why Dodgers catchers have made it the go-to pitch in key counts.

Q: Will Pete Alonso's departure clear the path for Francisco Lindor to shatter the Mets' franchise home run record?

Yes—Pete Alonso’s departure makes Francisco Lindor’s path to the Mets’ home run record much clearer, though “shatter” is less certain than “has a strong chance to break.” Alonso left New York with the franchise record at 264 homers. Lindor is already climbing the list, with reports in the provided material placing him at either 156 or 161 as a Met, good for sixth in team history. The key math is favorable: with five years left on his contract, Lindor would need to average roughly 21 to 22 homers per season to pass Alonso. At his recent Mets pace, that is realistic. One report notes he is tracking closer to about 27 per year, which would put him on course to overtake the mark around 2030. What changed with Alonso’s exit is the size of the target. Had Alonso stayed, he likely would have pushed the record far higher, perhaps beyond 300 quickly and toward 400 later, making Lindor’s chase much tougher. Instead, the record is frozen at 264 unless someone else passes it. The bigger caveat is that Lindor may not hold the record long even if he gets it. Juan Soto, younger and already producing at a high home run rate for the Mets, is widely viewed as an even stronger long-term threat to become the franchise leader after Lindor. So Alonso’s departure did clear the path for Lindor to break the record. Whether he “shatters” it will depend on health, aging, and how much power he retains into his late 30s.

1 articles · Updated · Sports Illustrated · Sep 16

179 changeups in his first month with Los Angeles marked the highest monthly total of Tarik Skubal’s career, as the Dodgers pushed him toward his best pitch after his midseason move.
28.8% of Skubal’s pitches with the Dodgers have been changeups, up from 25.1% with Detroit, while his sinker usage has fallen as Los Angeles leans into top weapons.
36% of his pitches with runners in scoring position are now changeups, overtaking the four-seam fastball; with the Tigers, his four-seamer had led those situations at 37%.
46.8% is the whiff rate on Skubal’s changeup—the best in MLB—and opponents are hitting just .128 against it with runners in scoring position, second-lowest among pitchers with at least 125 such pitches.
The shift reflects a broader Dodgers and Rays-style philosophy: trust the best pitch more often, especially when innings tighten.