Fitch Warns 35% AI-Led Stock Drop Could Push US GDP Down 1.5%
Updated
Updated · CNN · Sep 18
Fitch Warns 35% AI-Led Stock Drop Could Push US GDP Down 1.5%
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Sep 18
Summary
Fitch modeled an AI-related downturn in which US stocks fall about 35% over six months and the economy slips into recession, with GDP contracting 1.5% next year.
The warning reflects how deeply AI spending now underpins growth: ING estimates AI and data-center investment drives a third of 2026 year-over-year economic growth, while Goldman says AI fuels half of S&P 500 profit growth.
A sharp reversal would hit more than tech shares, because AI-linked wealth gains are supporting consumer spending and corporate investment across the broader economy.
Fitch said such a collapse is not its base case, but it sees the AI equity bubble as a major risk alongside elevated debt, inflation pressures, higher-rate concerns, the Iran war and heavy corporate borrowing for the AI buildout.
The scenario helps explain why Trump is pressing an aggressive pro-AI stance despite public resistance to nearby data centers and broader skepticism about the technology.