Super El Niño Ties 2015 Record at 3.07C as Models See 4.1C Peak
Updated
Updated · Carbon Brief · Sep 21
Super El Niño Ties 2015 Record at 3.07C as Models See 4.1C Peak
3 articles · Updated · Carbon Brief · Sep 21
Summary
A 3.07C daily Niño 3.4 anomaly on Sept. 19 put the 2026 El Niño in a statistical tie with the previous record set in November 2015, even though the event is still months from its usual peak.
Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have risen faster than in any prior event on record, with this year already running more than 1C above early-September levels seen in 1997 and 2015.
August 2026 averaged about 2.45C in Niño 3.4—already higher than the peak of every past El Niño except 2015-16 and 1877-78—while some baseline methods already classify the current event as a new record.
Fourteen seasonal models project a peak monthly anomaly near 4.1C, with 80% of 674 runs between 3.4C and 4.6C and every run above the 2015-16 record, though forecasters caution models have never faced an event this large.
Because El Niño's effect on global temperatures typically lags Pacific warming by several months, the biggest heat impact is expected in 2027 rather than 2026.