Updated
Updated · The Independent · Sep 23
UK Private Sector Growth Slows to 51.7 PMI as Iran War Inflation Lifts Costs
Updated
Updated · The Independent · Sep 23

UK Private Sector Growth Slows to 51.7 PMI as Iran War Inflation Lifts Costs

3 articles · Updated · The Independent · Sep 23

Summary

  • S&P Global’s flash UK composite PMI fell to 51.7 in September from 52.5, marking a three-month low even as private-sector activity expanded for a third straight month.
  • Input-price inflation hit its highest since June, with energy and fuel costs linked to the Iran war pushing firms to raise prices and leaving the economy growing at only an estimated 0.1% quarterly pace.
  • Services and manufacturing both lost momentum, with services hurt by weak domestic conditions and geopolitical uncertainty, while manufacturing posted its weakest growth since April despite support from AI investment and defence spending.
  • Employment fell again, extending job losses to two years, though the latest decline was marginal and confined to services; manufacturing payrolls rose for a sixth month as backlogs grew at the fastest rate since January 2022.
  • The survey sharpens the Bank of England’s dilemma: rising price pressures argue for a hawkish stance, while weak growth and higher borrowing costs increase risks to the wider economy.

Insights

What hidden shocks in the upcoming autumn Budget could push Britain's struggling private sector over the edge?
With inflation surging and growth stalling, what drastic moves will the Bank of England make to prevent a total economic freeze?
As traditional services shed jobs, could Britain's unexpected boom in AI and defense be the ultimate lifeline for its fragile economy?