Hurricane Nolo Weakens to 90 mph as Hawaii Faces 12-16 Foot Surf and Flood Risk

Q: If Nolo's center remains offshore, how might catastrophic surf and the silent threat of sudden mudslides become the deadliest factors for residents?

Even with Nolo’s center staying offshore, the deadliest danger is likely to come from water, not the eye of the storm. In Hawaii, a near-miss can still send powerful swells, heavy rain bands and surge into coastal and mountain communities, creating lethal conditions far from the storm’s center. The surf threat is serious because Nolo is already generating large swells on exposed east- and south-facing shores of the Big Island, with those impacts expected to spread westward. A 1 to 3 foot storm surge, especially at high tide, can flood normally dry coastal areas, cut off escape routes and sweep people, cars or debris into the ocean. Rip currents and breaking waves can also kill quickly because they often draw residents and visitors to shorelines before conditions visibly worsen. The mudslide risk may be even more insidious. Forecasts call for storm totals of 10 to 20 inches on parts of Hawaii Island, with isolated amounts up to 25 inches, on steep terrain that is especially vulnerable once soils are saturated. Mudslides can strike with little warning, often at night or after a lull in rain, and can bury roads, collapse hillsides and hit homes in valleys or along slopes before people can evacuate. That is why officials are stressing early action. If roads and bridges close and responders cannot reach trapped residents, dangerous surf on one side and sudden slope failure on the other can turn an offshore hurricane into a deadly land emergency.

3 articles · Updated · Hawaii News Now · Sep 26

Nolo's center moved farther west and away from Hawaii Island Saturday, prompting officials to drop the hurricane watch while keeping a tropical storm warning for Hawaii County.
The Category 1 storm still carries 90 mph winds, with tropical-storm-force winds reaching 150 miles from the center and gusty conditions possible across the islands through the weekend.
Hawaii Island faces the sharpest impacts: another 3 to 6 inches of rain, isolated totals of 10 inches, and storm totals of 10 to 20 inches that could trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides.
A High Surf Warning covers Hawaii Island's southeast shores, where 12- to 16-foot waves, rip currents and elevated water levels remain dangerous even as storm-surge risk has eased.
Forecasters say very warm water and abundant moisture could strengthen Nolo into a major hurricane by Sunday, though its track is expected to stay well south of the main Hawaiian Islands.

Sources

Hawaii News Now48d ago

Hurricane Nolo Moves Westward as Category 1, Threatens Hawaii with Winds, Rain, and High Surf

The New York Times48d ago

Hurricane Nolo Updates: Storm Spins Off Hawaii, Bringing Thread of Flooding - The New York Times

NBC News47d ago

Hurricane Nolo expected to bring heavy rain as it skirts Hawaii's Big Island

11 Sources

Why did Hurricane Nolo stall for 12 hours, and what hidden oceanic forces threaten Hawaii with unprecedented 25-inch rainfall floods?

With Hurricane Nolo rapidly intensifying offshore, could catastrophic mudslides and power grid failures leave Hawaii Island completely isolated for weeks?

If Nolo's center remains offshore, how might catastrophic surf and the silent threat of sudden mudslides become the deadliest factors for residents?