Goldman Warns 90-Day U.S. Diesel Export Ban Could Lift Gasoline 30 Cents a Week

3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · Sep 28

Goldman Sachs said a proposed 90-day U.S. diesel export ban would only briefly cut diesel prices before pushing gasoline prices up by about $0.30 a gallon per week.
The bank estimates diesel would initially fall about $0.25 a gallon each week, but only until domestic storage fills; because diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are produced together, the glut would then spill into gasoline.
Europe, the biggest buyer of U.S. energy commodities, would also face higher diesel costs, with Goldman estimating a roughly $3-per-barrel increase—about 2% of current prices.
An emergency inventory release could offset about half that overseas price rise, while lifting the ban later would likely send U.S. diesel prices back up and prices abroad down.
The analysis casts doubt on the policy's usefulness, suggesting any short-term relief for U.S. diesel would be temporary and followed by broader fuel-market disruption.