Kalshi Traders See 60% Odds U.S. Added Over 90,000 Jobs in September
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Sep 29
Kalshi Traders See 60% Odds U.S. Added Over 90,000 Jobs in September
2 articles · Updated · CNBC · Sep 29
Summary
Kalshi traders are pricing a 60% chance that September U.S. payrolls topped 90,000, with roughly even odds the report lands in six figures when the Labor Department releases it Friday.
That is stronger than the Dow Jones economist consensus of 84,000 jobs and extends the upbeat shift after August payrolls beat expectations with a 162,000 gain.
Polymarket traders are sending a similar signal, also putting about 50-50 odds on a six-figure September jobs report; both platforms settle contracts against official Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
A firmer labor backdrop would reinforce the rebound seen after summer weakness and could leave the Federal Reserve with more room to keep its focus on inflation after its September rate increase.