If polls keep showing a near tie, which voters will decide whether campaign style or everyday affordability matters more?

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The race is likely to be decided by Maine’s small pool of persuadable unenrolled voters, soft partisans and crossover women voters, especially older suburban women and working-class independents in rural and small-town areas who are not firmly committed to either candidate. Polling points to two different tests. Collins’ advantage comes from trust, incumbency and her long-standing argument that she can deliver resources to Maine. Jackson’s opening is among voters who say daily costs are getting harder to manage. In the UMass Lowell/YouGov survey, 63% said affording basic necessities had become harder, and heating oil, gasoline and utility prices remain unusually salient in Maine. That gives affordability real weight, particularly in a state heavily reliant on home heating oil. But campaign style still matters because many of the remaining movable voters appear to be judging temperament and credibility as much as ideology. Jackson’s boba-tea ad fed concerns that his message can feel forced or off-key, while Collins faces scrutiny tied to the ProPublica reporting that could weaken trust among late-deciding swing voters. Interviews with Maine voters in recent coverage suggest some are balancing Collins’ effectiveness and experience against concerns about integrity and change. If the election stays this close, the deciding voters will probably be those who are economically stressed but not strongly partisan: people who want help with prices and heating bills, but also want a can…

Troy Jackson’s Boba Tea Ad Draws 2 Million Views as Both Parties Mock Maine Senate Spot

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Troy Jackson’s Boba Tea Ad Draws 2 Million Views as Both Parties Mock Maine Senate Spot

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