Can turnout among younger and diverse Texas voters overcome long-standing participation gaps in this unusually competitive Senate race?

Question

Accepted Answer

It could, but only if turnout among younger, Black and Hispanic Texans rises well above the levels seen in past midterms. The evidence shows why this race is competitive. Multiple September polls place James Talarico narrowly ahead or in a dead heat with Ken Paxton, and age splits are striking: an Emerson poll found voters under 50 backing Talarico by 15 points, while older voters favored Paxton by 11. Talarico also runs strongly with Black voters and has an advantage with many Hispanic and independent voters, especially in major metro areas. The obstacle is participation. Texas Democrats have long struggled because the voters most favorable to them — younger, Black and Hispanic Texans — tend to vote at lower rates than older white conservatives. That pattern remains real. In El Paso County, for example, only about 20% of registered voters ages 18 to 29 voted in the 2022 midterm. Older Texans remain far more likely to cast ballots, and polling shows they still lean toward Paxton. There are signs the gap can narrow. Youth registration nationally is improving, and local election officials in Texas report a modest drop in the median voter age and more participation from voters under 34. Talarico’s digital outreach, Obama’s appearance, and heavy investment in Black voter outreach may help. Texas’ huge and youthful Latino electorate also gives Democrats room to grow, especially in Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and South Texas. Still, turnout alone is not automatic. Registration hurd…

Talarico Targets 2.7 Million Black Voters in Texas Senate Bid Against Paxton

Sources

Sources

Talarico Targets 2.7 Million Black Voters in Texas Senate Bid Against Paxton

Summary

Sources

Insights

Related Stories

Sources

Related Stories