Senate Democrats Eye November Gains as Republicans Brace for 1-Seat Majority

Q: Why are open-seat races in Michigan and New Hampshire drawing outsized attention this year?

They are drawing outsized attention because both are open seats in a narrowly divided Senate cycle, and open races are inherently less predictable than contests with entrenched incumbents. In Michigan, Sen. Gary Peters’ retirement removed a sitting Democrat from a state that is central to the national Senate map. The seat is considered one of the most competitive defenses for Democrats, and Republicans see a real opening there. The race also became more prominent after a bruising Democratic primary, which raised questions about party unity heading into the fall. Because control of the chamber could hinge on just a few states, Michigan’s open seat has become a must-watch contest. New Hampshire is getting similar scrutiny because Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement took a durable Democratic incumbent off the board and created one of the cycle’s clearest swing opportunities. The general election matchup between Democrat Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu is seen as high-profile and potentially decisive for Senate control. The state’s large bloc of independents and its history of ticket-splitting make an open-seat race there especially volatile. Both races also sit in a small cluster of states likely to determine the majority, which is why outside money, polling and national attention have flowed so heavily into them. With Georgia now viewed as less competitive for Republicans, Michigan and New Hampshire stand out even more as pivotal open-seat battlegrounds.

3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Sep 30

Chuck Schumer said Democrats are in "much better shape" across purple and red states, signaling rising confidence they can win back the Senate in November.
Republicans are projecting a far narrower path: Thom Tillis put GOP odds at 60% to 70% and said any majority would likely be slim, while John Kennedy said every race would be close.
GOP anxiety is showing in campaign-year tactics, with leaders keeping the Senate in session this week for an affordability vote tied to endangered Ohio incumbent Jon Husted.
Georgia has moved off the top pickup list for Republicans, with both parties now largely treating Jon Ossoff's seat as safe for Democrats.
Michigan and New Hampshire remain the key Democratic defense states after the retirements of Gary Peters and Jeanne Shaheen, though Democratic nominees lead in most polls.