Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Oct 1
Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro Run Neck and Neck as $27 Million Banco Master Scandal Roils Brazil Vote
Updated
Updated · The Guardian · Oct 1

Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro Run Neck and Neck as $27 Million Banco Master Scandal Roils Brazil Vote

3 articles · Updated · The Guardian · Oct 1

Summary

  • Sunday’s Brazilian election has tightened into a near dead heat between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, turning a contest once expected to favor the incumbent into a volatile race.
  • A $27 million Banco Master episode helped scramble the campaign after Flávio Bolsonaro was taped asking banker Daniel Vorcaro for funding, then messages surfaced involving the judge who led Jair Bolsonaro’s prosecution.
  • Those revelations deepened voter cynicism toward both camps, reinforced far-right claims that Jair Bolsonaro was framed, and came as Lula already faced doubts over the economy, crime and his age at 80.
  • Polls cited earlier this week put Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 34%, with a runoff possible on October 25 and Bolsonaro potentially better placed to consolidate the right.
  • A narrow Lula first-round win could still be contested because the Bolsonaro camp has spent years attacking Brazil’s electronic voting system, raising broader fears for democratic stability and Amazon protections.

Insights

Could Brazil's powerful Congress doom the historic EU-Mercosur trade deal over environmental rollbacks, regardless of who wins the presidency?
Will a victory for Flávio Bolsonaro completely dismantle the Mercosur bloc in favor of aggressive bilateral trade agreements?
If Europe stalls the Mercosur agreement, will China immediately monopolize South America's critical raw materials and agricultural exports?