Traders Cut October Fed Hike Odds to 17% After 29,000 September Jobs Gain
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 2
Traders Cut October Fed Hike Odds to 17% After 29,000 September Jobs Gain
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 2
Summary
CME FedWatch showed just a 17% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike in October after September payrolls rose only 29,000, far below forecasts for more than 80,000.
Kalshi pricing told the same story, putting October hike odds at 18%, down from nearly 70% a week ago, as traders absorbed signs of a softer labor market.
Wednesday's inflation data had already pushed expectations lower after core PCE rose 3% in August, below the 3.3% consensus and reinforcing the case for patience.
December remains the market's favored timing for another move, with FedWatch showing more than 75% odds of a hike and the Fed due to decide next on Oct. 28.