October 4 marks the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, with Lula seeking a fourth term against Flávio Bolsonaro in a race framed as a choice between strategic autonomy and close alignment with Washington.
98% of GDP is where the IMF sees government debt by end-2026, underscoring the fiscal squeeze, political fragmentation and corruption that the report says are eroding Brazil’s ability to honor commitments at home and abroad.
A Supreme Court scandal has sharpened the stakes: Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation over alleged Banco Master links, Lula allies are also touched by the probe, and the winner could appoint at least 3 of the court’s 11 justices.
China buys nearly 30% of Brazil’s exports while the United States is pressing critical-minerals and security priorities, leaving Brasília less able to balance major powers as partners question whether its deals will endure.
Neither candidate offers a clear fix for the credibility deficit, the report argues, meaning the election is more likely to determine how Brazil manages declining autonomy than to reverse it.