Dodgers Beat Braves 5-3 in NLDS Game 1 Behind 6 Strong Innings From Skubal

Q: Will Tarik Skubal's history of three major arm surgeries cost him a record-breaking $400 million contract in upcoming free agency?

Probably not, but it could keep him below the most aggressive projections. Skubal’s injury history is the central risk in his free agency: Tommy John surgery in 2016, flexor tendon surgery in 2022, and an elbow cleanup in 2026. For clubs considering a long-term deal into his late 30s, that matters. It is one reason industry projections are spread so widely, from the high $100 millions to as much as $500 million. Even so, the broader market signals still point to a record-setting contract for a pitcher. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported an average projection of eight years and $355 million from 27 insiders, with the biggest cluster of estimates between $325 million and $400 million. Multiple evaluators still pegged him at exactly $400 million, and some projected well beyond that. That suggests teams view the health risk as a pricing variable, not a deal-breaker. What could change is the structure. Rather than a full 10-year mega-deal at the top of the market, clubs may prefer a shorter term with a higher annual value, opt-outs, deferrals, or a large signing bonus. His postseason performance with the Dodgers could also strengthen the case that he is worth assuming the risk. So the surgeries may cost Skubal the very top-end scenario — something like $450 million to $500 million — but they are unlikely to prevent him from landing the largest guaranteed pitching contract in MLB history if bidding from the Dodgers, Mets or another deep-pocketed team holds.

2 articles · Updated · Fox News · Oct 3

Tarik Skubal carried Los Angeles in a 5-3 Game 1 win, allowing one run on two hits with seven strikeouts over six innings.
Teoscar Hernández broke a scoreless game with a two-run, 431-foot homer in the fourth after Atlanta turned from starter Dylan Dodd to its bullpen.
Kyle Tucker and Max Muncy added sixth-inning home runs to stretch the lead to 5-1, punishing a Braves staff thinned by its three-game Wild Card Series.
Atlanta made it tense in the ninth on Ozzie Albies' two-run homer, but Evan Phillips got Austin Riley to ground out with the tying run aboard.
The win opens the Dodgers' bid for a third straight World Series title, with Game 2 set for Sunday at Dodger Stadium.