Gulf Storm Threat Rises to 80% as Heavy Rain Targets 5 Southern Areas
Updated
Updated · CNN · Oct 5
Gulf Storm Threat Rises to 80% as Heavy Rain Targets 5 Southern Areas
3 articles · Updated · CNN · Oct 5
Summary
An 80% chance of tropical development now hangs over the Gulf this week, with the Bay of Campeche system increasingly likely to organize by midweek.
Record-warm Gulf waters are fueling the disturbance, though less favorable upper-level conditions could cap it below hurricane strength or even cause it to weaken before reaching shore.
Alabama, Georgia, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Louisiana and Mississippi face the highest rain risk, with coastal downpours possible by Friday and flooding threats lasting through the weekend.
Three scenarios remain in play: a weak tropical storm moving north, a non-developing moisture plume producing heavy rain, or Tropical Storm Isaias making Gulf Coast landfall with wind, surge and rain.
Late-season Gulf storms often hit land quickly, and this season's El Niño-driven wind shear may keep the Atlantic hurricane-free even as warmer waters make weaker systems wetter.