Fed Signals 1 More Rate Hike in 2026 as 16 of 18 Officials Back Move
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 7
Fed Signals 1 More Rate Hike in 2026 as 16 of 18 Officials Back Move
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 7
Summary
Minutes from the Fed’s Sept. 16 meeting showed most policymakers expect another rate increase by year-end after a unanimous quarter-point hike, though they gave no firm timing for the next move.
Sixteen of 18 officials who submitted forecasts backed one more increase, citing inflation that has stayed above the 2% target for more than five years, a labor market near maximum employment and firmer growth.
Recent data have tempered expectations for an Oct. 28 hike: August core PCE inflation was 3% and headline PCE 3.4%, both below expectations even while still well above target.
Officials said future decisions remain data-dependent, with the next policy meetings set for Oct. 28 and Dec. 9 and the committee’s broader outlook still pointing to no additional hikes in 2027.
Treasury yields, meanwhile, have climbed to their highest levels since 2002 as markets price higher-for-longer rates, stronger growth and other factors including uncertainty around Treasury buybacks.