New York Fed Survey Lifts 1-Year Inflation View to 3.9% as Energy Costs Climb
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 7
New York Fed Survey Lifts 1-Year Inflation View to 3.9% as Energy Costs Climb
3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 7
Summary
The New York Fed’s September survey showed median 12-month inflation expectations rising to 3.9%, up 0.3 point from August and the highest since May 2023.
Energy costs drove the jump: gasoline prices rose nearly 4% in August, fuel oil climbed more than 10%, and consumers now expect gas prices to increase 4.8% over the next year.
Households also lifted their spending-growth outlook to 5.5%, another 0.3-point increase and the highest reading since May 2023, signaling inflation worries are feeding into consumption expectations.
Longer-term views were steadier—three-year expectations edged up to 3.3% and five-year expectations held at 3%—but bond-market breakevens sit near this year’s highs and fed funds futures imply 5.58% in five years.
The survey lands as Fed officials debate policy with inflation still above the 2% target; markets largely expect rates to stay unchanged later in October after softer August inflation data.