EIA Sees Heating Oil Bills Jump 21% This Winter as Natural Gas Costs Fall 9%
Updated
Updated · EIA · Oct 7
EIA Sees Heating Oil Bills Jump 21% This Winter as Natural Gas Costs Fall 9%
3 articles · Updated · EIA · Oct 7
Summary
U.S. households using heating oil face the sharpest increase in winter 2026-27 costs, with average spending forecast to rise 21% to $2,115, while natural gas households are expected to spend 9% less on average.
Lower natural gas and propane prices drive most of the savings, but electricity bills are projected to climb 4% and heating oil prices 34% as global distillate supplies tighten and U.S. stocks enter winter low.
The West stands out in EIA's outlook: heating degree days are forecast to jump 25% from last winter, pushing natural gas spending up 7% there and electricity outlays up 9%, even as the national winter is seen near last year's level.
About half of U.S. households heat with natural gas or propane and should see lower costs overall, while more than 40% using electricity face modest increases and the roughly 3% using heating oil bear the biggest hit.
EIA said a strong El Niño could still swing temperatures widely, and its side cases assume winter weather 10% colder or warmer than the base forecast.