Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 7
New Constructs Calls Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO a 2026 Ripoff as Losses Hit $42 Billion
Updated
Updated · CNBC · Oct 7

New Constructs Calls Anthropic's $2 Trillion IPO a 2026 Ripoff as Losses Hit $42 Billion

1 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 7

Summary

  • New Constructs said Anthropic's planned Nasdaq debut is the "most ridiculous IPO of 2026," arguing a mooted $2 trillion valuation would amount to a major transfer of value to existing backers.
  • $42 billion in 2025 net losses against $4.6 billion in revenue underpin that view, while the firm says open-source AI models are eroding the economics of closed-model businesses.
  • $150 billion is New Constructs' estimate of Anthropic's fair value; it said justifying $2 trillion would require roughly double Nvidia's trailing 12-month profit, which topped $190 billion.
  • Anthropic has not published its prospectus, but leaked figures cited by Reuters and prior reports point to rapid growth, with annualized revenue run rate reaching $65 billion in July and reportedly tracking toward $100 billion by end-2026.
  • David Trainer's firm has landed bearish IPO calls before—notably WeWork—but also missed on DoorDash, underscoring how unusually hard it is to judge high-growth listings before public trading begins.

Insights

Could Anthropic’s massive $518 billion infrastructure debt make its highly anticipated 2026 IPO a disastrous trap for public investors?
With open-source AI driving down prices, how can a company warning of its own existential risks justify a multi-trillion-dollar valuation?