Brent Peaked at $109 in Q3 as Middle East Conflict Lifted Refinery Margins
Updated
Updated · EIA · Oct 5
Brent Peaked at $109 in Q3 as Middle East Conflict Lifted Refinery Margins
3 articles · Updated · EIA · Oct 5
Summary
$109 a barrel marked Brent crude’s Q3 peak on Sept. 15, after renewed strikes from July and attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East and Russia pushed prices above $100 twice.
Prices stayed elevated because earlier buffers weakened: China’s crude imports remained below prewar levels but rose from May and June, while U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases slowed sharply in September.
U.S. refineries ran at 95% utilization in Q3—the strongest third-quarter throughput since 2019—supported by unusually high margins for gasoline, distillate and jet fuel.
Distillate and jet fuel crack spreads nearly tripled from a year earlier as disrupted refining in Russia, China and the Middle East tightened global supply; U.S. distillate inventories were 13% below the five-year average by Sept. 25.
By late September, Brent averaged about $104 as markets weighed peace talks against the risk that the conflict could widen again.
With global refining capacity severely crippled, could the looming winter trigger an unprecedented heating oil crisis despite stabilizing crude prices?
Will record-breaking refinery profit margins inadvertently accelerate global demand destruction before damaged Middle Eastern infrastructure can be repaired?
As global oil reserves drain at alarming rates, what hidden catalyst could suddenly shatter the fragile balance of the Q4 energy market?