Goldman Says Investors Doubt Chinese Firms' 31% Overseas Share Target by 2035

3 articles · Updated · CNBC · Oct 13

Chinese companies have little of their global expansion opportunity priced into their stocks because investors still question whether overseas growth will be profitable, Goldman Sachs said.
31% of overseas market share by 2035 is Goldman’s forecast, up from about 18% now, as weak consumer demand at home pushes Chinese firms in sectors from EVs to robots to expand abroad.
Higher margins overseas can let Chinese companies undercut local rivals, but investors fear a repeat of China-style price wars and see geopolitics and market-access limits as additional risks.
10% to 15% market-share losses can wipe 50% to 80% off incumbents’ market value, Goldman said, underscoring why Chinese brands are increasingly seen as embedded competitors, especially in emerging markets.