NFL Staff Back Packers 7-1 Over Cowboys as Bills Draw 7-1 Edge in Week 6

Q: Will Dallas's historically weak defense at Lambeau Field cost them against a surging Jordan Love?

Yes, it is a major reason Dallas is viewed as the underdog, especially if Jordan Love keeps pushing the ball downfield. The evidence lines up strongly against the Cowboys. Dallas has not intercepted a pass through five games, is tied for the fourth-most explosive plays allowed with 37, and has repeatedly struggled to prevent chunk gains in the passing game. That is a dangerous combination against a Packers offense built around Love’s deep-ball aggression. In Week 5 alone, Love threw for 367 yards and completed 6 of 8 passes of 20-plus air yards for 258 yards and two touchdowns, one of the strongest deep-passing games in recent Next Gen Stats history. Lambeau adds to the concern. Dallas is just 2-10 all-time in Green Bay and has not won there since 2016. The broader matchup history is also troubling: Green Bay has dominated recent meetings, and Love himself has already been highly efficient against Dallas, including a six-touchdown, no-interception line across two games cited in team materials. That said, Dallas is not without a path. Dak Prescott has historically thrown well against Green Bay, and the Cowboys’ offense still has enough firepower with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to turn the game into a shootout. Green Bay’s defense has its own injury questions in the secondary. Still, if the game turns on Dallas’ defense getting stops, history and current form both point the wrong way. That is why the staff leaned 7-1 toward Green Bay.

3 articles · Updated · The New York Times · Oct 15

Week 6 staff picks showed the strongest consensus yet, with Green Bay favored 7-1 over Dallas, Buffalo 7-1 over Las Vegas and Baltimore a unanimous 8-0 over Cleveland.
7-1 Packers support rests on Jordan Love’s deep passing after Green Bay’s rout of Chicago, while Dallas’ aggressive, high-volume passing attack still drew one dissenting vote.
7-1 Bills backing came despite one upset call, because Buffalo’s red-zone rushing and outside-run game match up well against a Raiders defense ranked last or next-to-last in those areas.
5-3 Eagles was the week’s closest split, reflecting Philadelphia’s 2-3 slide, injuries and clock-management issues against a Carolina offense averaging the NFL’s fourth-most points.
Three undefeated teams and three winless teams remain entering Week 6, underscoring a season that the staff said has been less predictable than usual through five weeks.