Thwaites Glacier Will Keep Melting for 150 Years Even Under Zero Ocean Melt
Updated
Updated · New Scientist · Oct 16
Thwaites Glacier Will Keep Melting for 150 Years Even Under Zero Ocean Melt
3 articles · Updated · New Scientist · Oct 16
Summary
Three ice-sheet models found Thwaites would keep losing ice for at least 150 years even if ocean-driven melting stopped entirely—an impossible best-case scenario that still failed to stabilize the glacier.
Researchers said the glacier’s retreat reflects long-lived instability set off by extreme 1940s El Niño conditions and intensified by roughly four decades of human-driven ocean warming.
Pine Island, modeled alongside Thwaites, re-advanced and became more stable, underscoring that Thwaites is behaving differently despite both being major Antarctic contributors to sea-level rise.
A full Thwaites collapse could help unleash about 5 metres of sea-level rise from wider West Antarctic ice-sheet loss, though the study suggests that runaway collapse is not yet inevitable if ocean melt can be curbed.
That leaves emissions cuts still crucial: warmer oceans would speed the locked-in ice loss, and separate research this week said Thwaites may retreat fast enough to double earlier sea-level-rise estimates by 2100.
With irreversible melting already locked in, will the unpinning of this colossal glacier trigger an unstoppable domino effect across Antarctica?
Could the terrifying new timeline for Thwaites' collapse render all current coastal defense plans entirely obsolete before 2050?
If the Doomsday Glacier is already doomed, what hidden threats lie beneath other massive ice sheets waiting to be discovered?
Thwaites Glacier’s Accelerating Collapse: Scientific Drivers, Global Sea-Level Rise, and the Race to Protect 230 Million Coastal Residents
Overview
Recent discoveries show that warm, pressurized ocean water is flowing several kilometers beneath Thwaites Glacier, lifting the ice and creating a dynamic grounding zone. This process, combined with turbulent ocean eddies and structural fracturing, is causing the glacier to melt and retreat much faster than older models predicted. As Thwaites loses its grip on stabilizing ridges, it risks unpinning and retreating across a backward-sloping seafloor, which could unlock massive ice loss from West Antarctica. This accelerated melt threatens to raise global sea levels, disrupt financial markets, and force vulnerable communities to relocate, prompting urgent international policy responses and adaptation efforts.