Alberta Oilsands Expansion Faces 300,000-Barrel-a-Day Diluent Gap as New Pipelines Loom
Updated
Updated · The Hub · Oct 14
Alberta Oilsands Expansion Faces 300,000-Barrel-a-Day Diluent Gap as New Pipelines Loom
1 articles · Updated · The Hub · Oct 14
Summary
Nearly 900,000 barrels a day of diluent are already used in Western Canada, and Alberta’s oilsands growth plans risk pushing demand beyond available supply as new export pipelines are proposed.
A 1 million-barrel-a-day Pacific Link line could require about 300,000 barrels a day of diluent in its diluted bitumen stream, while Alberta regulators see pentanes-plus demand nearing 934,000 barrels a day by 2034.
Domestic condensate output is rising from liquids-rich gas drilling, but S&P Global estimates even 100 million tonnes of LNG exports would add only about 110,000 barrels a day of condensate under illustrative assumptions.
That leaves Alberta increasingly dependent on U.S. imports—now roughly 275,000 to 350,000 barrels a day—with overseas bitumen shipments worsening the squeeze because exported diluent is less likely to return for reuse.
Analysts say the market could attract more imports and drilling, but only with higher prices and new infrastructure, raising oilsands costs and tying Alberta’s oil ambitions more tightly to gas development.