GOP Pollster Patrick Ruffini Puts Senate Control at 50-50 as He Warns Polls Overstate Blue Wave
Updated
Updated · POLITICO · Oct 19
GOP Pollster Patrick Ruffini Puts Senate Control at 50-50 as He Warns Polls Overstate Blue Wave
3 articles · Updated · POLITICO · Oct 19
Summary
Patrick Ruffini said Republicans have a 50-50 chance of keeping the Senate, arguing Democrats may be overperforming in surveys without converting that into broad red-state wins.
Twice-as-high response rates from high-propensity Democrats versus comparable Republicans are creating non-response bias, he said, making this year’s polling look more favorable to Democrats than likely turnout would justify.
Ruffini drew a line between narrowly Trump states such as North Carolina and Georgia, where Democrats are favored, and deeper-red Midwest targets like Iowa, Ohio and Kansas, where he expects late movement back toward base partisanship.
He said the House is still most likely lost for Republicans, though a roughly 3-point polling error could tighten the outcome, and argued a true Senate blue wave would signal the biggest depolarization shift since around 2012.