BoE Seen Raising Bank Rate to 4% in November as 54 of 63 Economists Back Hike
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Oct 15
BoE Seen Raising Bank Rate to 4% in November as 54 of 63 Economists Back Hike
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Oct 15
Summary
54 of 63 economists polled on Oct. 12-14 expect the Bank of England to lift Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in November, a sharp reversal from last month when about 90% saw no move this year.
Inflation at 3.1% is expected to climb toward 4%, with energy-price pressure from the US-Israeli war with Iran and stronger-than-expected UK growth pushing forecasters to conclude borrowing costs need to rise.
30 of 61 economists still see no clear path beyond November, with only nearly half expecting one more increase in the first quarter of 2027 even as markets fully price in four quarter-point hikes by end-2027.
Andrew Bailey has signaled a hike is nearing, but Chief Economist Huw Pill again pushed back against expectations of a full tightening cycle.
The rate outlook comes as gilt yields sit at decades-high levels before the Oct. 28 budget, where economists expect Chancellor John Healey to rebuild fiscal headroom to about £15-16 billion.