Forecasts Signal Strongest Super El Niño Winter on Record as 3 Past Seasons Show Divergent U.S. Impacts
Updated
Updated · Fox Weather · Oct 20
Forecasts Signal Strongest Super El Niño Winter on Record as 3 Past Seasons Show Divergent U.S. Impacts
3 articles · Updated · Fox Weather · Oct 20
Summary
Forecast models point to a potentially record-strong Super El Niño this winter, with U.S. impacts likely to vary sharply by region rather than follow one fixed historical script.
Three Super El Niño winters since 1990 — 1991-92, 1997-98 and 2015-16 — produced very different outcomes, from the 1991 Halloween blizzard to the January 2016 storm that dropped more than 2 feet on Central Park.
Cold air availability and storm track were the key swing factors: active Pacific storms can turn into rain or snow depending on whether enough cold air is in place.
Warmer ocean waters in 2015-16 across the Pacific, Gulf of America and Atlantic may have added heat and moisture and shifted the jet stream, while cooler coastal waters in the 1990s may have limited coastal storm development.
FOX Weather said the sample is too small for a reliable analog, meaning a quiet October would not rule out an early blockbuster storm — or guarantee a snowy season.