S&P Global Warns 45 Million Face Hunger as Hormuz Shocks Double Fertilizer Prices
Updated
Updated · OilPrice.com · Oct 21
S&P Global Warns 45 Million Face Hunger as Hormuz Shocks Double Fertilizer Prices
3 articles · Updated · OilPrice.com · Oct 21
Summary
Half of global fertilizer feedstock exports moved through the Strait of Hormuz before the Iran war, and S&P Global says the disruption is turning an energy crisis into a food-security threat.
Fertilizer prices roughly doubled after shipping through Hormuz nearly halted on Feb. 28, squeezing farmers through higher diesel and chemical input costs and diverting acreage toward biofuel feedstocks.
S&P says staple crops such as corn, wheat and rice are heavily dependent on nitrogen fertilizer, putting about half of the world’s calories at risk if supply chains stay impaired.
The IMF projects fertilizer prices will rise 10% by year-end, lifting food costs 5% in 2026 and another 2.4% in 2027, with low-income countries most exposed.
Even with fragile U.S.-Iran arrangements and some shipping resumed, Gulf natural-gas feedstock recovery could take months or years, prolonging hunger risks and potential unrest.