Global Food Inflation to Accelerate Into 2027 as Wheat Jumps 30% on Supply Shocks
Updated
Updated · Reuters · Oct 19
Global Food Inflation to Accelerate Into 2027 as Wheat Jumps 30% on Supply Shocks
3 articles · Updated · Reuters · Oct 19
Summary
Food inflation is expected to intensify in coming months and persist well into 2027, with the FAO warning the biggest impact may hit late this year and early next year.
War-disrupted shipping, elevated fertiliser costs and El Nino-linked drought are squeezing cereal supplies; freight rates on some key routes have risen about 50% and wheat prices are up more than 30% in 2026.
Consumer prices are already surging across vulnerable importers: Indonesian rice and Indian sugar have hit records, Egypt’s unsubsidised bread is up 25% since July, and UAE cooking oil has climbed about 40%.
Shrinking buffers could worsen the squeeze as importers in the Middle East and Africa return to global markets, while Indonesian wheat arrivals fell 41% in September and some millers are running below capacity.
The World Bank said food prices outpaced headline inflation in 22% of 150 countries in the September quarter, raising risks of social unrest and fresh export curbs by major suppliers.