Texas Redistricting Jeopardizes 4 Latino GOP Races in Trump-Plus-10 Seats
Updated
Updated · The Washington Post · Oct 20
Texas Redistricting Jeopardizes 4 Latino GOP Races in Trump-Plus-10 Seats
3 articles · Updated · The Washington Post · Oct 20
Summary
Four South Texas districts redrawn to give Donald Trump at least a 10-point edge are now competitive or leaning Democratic, putting Republican recruits such as Eric Flores and Carlos De La Cruz at risk.
Washington Post analysis found heavy ticket-splitting across the borderlands in 2024: Trump carried the four districts by a combined 12 points, but GOP House candidates led by only 8 points as many Latino voters backed Democrats downballot.
That mismatch has also hurt incumbent Monica De La Cruz, whose district remains nearly 18 points pro-Trump but is more than 60% new territory; an internal poll had Democrat Bobby Pulido within 1 point.
Republicans also weakened their bid to unseat Henry Cuellar after carving Hidalgo County into his district; the Congressional Leadership Fund has since pulled $3 million in reserved ads from the race.
The episode underscores how volatile South Texas remains: Latino voters swung sharply to Trump in 2024, but local loyalty, candidate familiarity and split-ticket voting still limit how much mapmaking can lock in GOP gains.