Claude AI Sees 30-Year Mortgage Rates Above 6% Through 2031 as 10-Year Yields Stay Near 4.2%
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 22
Claude AI Sees 30-Year Mortgage Rates Above 6% Through 2031 as 10-Year Yields Stay Near 4.2%
2 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 22
Summary
Claude AI's base case puts 30-year mortgage rates near 6.95% in 2027 and still above 6% through 2031, even with gradual easing later in the period.
Deloitte and CBO Treasury forecasts underpin that view, with 10-year yields seen around 4.7% in 2027 and roughly 4.2% to 4.4% by 2031.
A wider mortgage-Treasury spread is a key reason rates stay elevated: the spread was about 2.31 percentage points on Oct. 15, with Claude assuming 2.15 points in 2027 narrowing to 1.98 by 2031.
Recent market moves forced the forecast higher after the 10-year Treasury climbed from 4.74% to about 5.25% and the 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.71% to 7.40% in six weeks.
Claude's scenarios still span a wide range, from a bull case of 5.38% by 2031 to a bear case peaking at 8.05% in 2028 before easing to 7.25%.