Stocks Enter November-April Window With 7% Historical Gain, Though Sell-in-May Edge Has Faded
Updated
Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 28
Stocks Enter November-April Window With 7% Historical Gain, Though Sell-in-May Edge Has Faded
1 articles · Updated · Yahoo Finance · Oct 28
Summary
Monday starts the market’s historically strongest six-month stretch, with the Dow averaging about 7% gains from November through April since 1950 versus less than 1% from May through October.
That seasonal edge has weakened: Yahoo Finance data show the S&P 500’s summer half has averaged about 3% since 1988, and over the past 10 years both halves returned roughly 7%.
2025 underscored the shift, with May through October rising about 23%, while the S&P 500 is already up about 6% since the end of April this year.
Midterm cycles still stand out: the post-midterm November-April period has risen 19 straight times since 1950, averaging about 15%, even as strategists say hedging in May now makes more sense than fully exiting stocks.